Rebuilding Ties: Prospects for Afghanistan-India Relations Under the Taliban Government

23 Jan 2025

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By:   AISRS Editorial Team

 

The Taliban government in Afghanistan has expressed its desire to foster positive relations with neighbouring and regional countries, recognising the importance of economic and trade ties for the development of the landlocked nation. Given Afghanistan's geographical position, trade facilities and connectivity with neighbouring countries are essential for economic growth and stability. Among these regional partners, India stands out as a critical player due to its past investments and influence in Afghanistan.

During the previous Afghan Republic, India was the largest regional donor to Afghanistan, completing numerous high-profile infrastructure and development projects. These included the Salma Dam (officially the Afghan-India Friendship Dam), the Afghan Parliament building, as well as hospitals, roads, and schools. Such projects not only strengthened bilateral ties but also showcased India’s commitment to Afghanistan’s development. However, following the fall of the Republic and the Taliban's return to power in 2021, India halted its involvement in Afghanistan, including the suspension of its visa services to Afghan nationals. The Taliban government has since been urging India to re-engage in Afghanistan, resume its developmental projects, and initiate new reconstruction efforts.

One of the significant areas where the Taliban seeks India’s assistance is in completing the Chabahar Port project in Iran. This port is strategically crucial for Afghanistan’s trade, as it provides a gateway to the Indian Ocean, bypassing Pakistan. A fully operational Chabahar Port would not only facilitate Afghanistan’s economic growth but also align with India’s ambitions to access Central Asia for trade and business. Such connectivity would be mutually beneficial, strengthening Afghanistan’s economy while enhancing India’s regional influence.

In addition to infrastructure, the Taliban government has shown interest in India investing in Afghanistan’s vast reserves of natural resources. Afghanistan is rich in untapped minerals, including lithium, copper, and rare earth elements, which are critical for modern industries. Indian investment in these sectors could provide much-needed revenue for Afghanistan while securing valuable resources for India’s growing economy.

Another pressing issue is the resumption of visa services for Afghan nationals. The Taliban has specifically requested India to restart issuing visas, particularly for businessmen, patients seeking medical treatment, and students. This would not only enhance people-to-people ties but also facilitate economic and educational exchanges. Furthermore, the Taliban has expressed interest in India providing training for Afghan civil servants and military personnel, acknowledging India’s expertise in governance and institutional development.

The strategic importance of India-Afghanistan relations cannot be overstated. Developments in Afghanistan have a direct impact on India’s security and regional interests. Historically, instability in Afghanistan has posed challenges for India, including the presence of anti-Indian militant groups during the Taliban’s previous regime in the 1990s. Notably, the hijacking of an Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar in 1999 strained relations with the Taliban government at the time. India remains wary of such incidents repeating, as well as the potential for terrorist groups to use Afghan soil to target Indian interests.

However, the Taliban has taken a different stance this time, pledging not to allow any foreign terrorist or militant groups to operate within Afghanistan. This assurance is significant for India, particularly as it aligns with both countries’ opposition to ISIS-K, a mutual adversary. The Taliban’s ongoing fight against ISIS-K presents a potential area for cooperation between India and Afghanistan. A stable and secure Afghanistan free of terrorist threats would serve India’s security interests and foster greater regional stability.

India’s desire to access Central Asia for trade and business further underscores the importance of Afghanistan in its foreign policy. Afghanistan’s geographical location makes it a vital corridor for connectivity between South Asia and Central Asia. By re-establishing its presence in Afghanistan, India could strengthen its position as a major regional power and secure its strategic and economic interests. This is particularly relevant as other powers, such as Russia and China, have already established working relationships with the Taliban government. India would not want to be left behind in this evolving geopolitical landscape.

While challenges remain, such as concerns over security and the Taliban’s governance, there are opportunities for India and Afghanistan to rebuild their relationship. The Taliban’s openness to collaboration, coupled with India’s strategic interests, provides a foundation for renewed engagement. By resuming its developmental projects, investing in Afghanistan’s resources, and supporting capacity-building initiatives, India could play a pivotal role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction and stabilisation.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan appears to prioritise its national interests by seeking to establish positive and amicable relations with all neighbouring countries and regional powers, including China, Russia, Iran, Central Asian states, and Pakistan. Such an approach is conducive to enhancing Afghanistan's security and fostering economic stability.

In conclusion, the Taliban government’s call for India to return to Afghanistan reflects a recognition of India’s importance as a regional partner. From infrastructure development to trade connectivity and security cooperation, there are numerous avenues for collaboration that could benefit both nations. For India, engaging with Afghanistan under the Taliban presents an opportunity to safeguard its strategic interests, contribute to regional stability, and maintain its influence in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.