By: AISRS Editorial Team
An Israeli attack on Iran could have far-reaching consequences for the entire Middle East and Central Asia, particularly Afghanistan, a nation already struggling with economic instability. Afghanistan’s geopolitical location—sandwiched between Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia—means it is likely to face significant economic and social disruption if tensions escalate in the region. Given Afghanistan’s fragile economic structure, any major conflict involving its neighbors would severely impact trade, energy supplies, and overall regional stability.
Afghanistan’s Economic Vulnerabilities
Afghanistan’s economy is heavily dependent on its neighbors for trade, particularly Iran. The two nations share a nearly 900-kilometer-long border, and Iran is one of Afghanistan’s major trading partners. Even amid ongoing sanctions and diplomatic tension between Iran and the West, Afghan-Iranian trade has remained robust. Iran exports essential goods, including food, fuel, and manufactured products, to Afghanistan, while Afghanistan exports fruits, nuts, and other agricultural goods in return.
A military conflict between Israel and Iran could severely disrupt these trade flows, driving up prices for Afghan consumers and reducing government revenue from trade taxes. In particular, the energy sector in Afghanistan is highly vulnerable. Afghanistan imports a significant portion of its oil and gas from Iran, and any disruption to these supplies would exacerbate the already high levels of energy insecurity. Afghanistan’s domestic energy production is limited, meaning it would have few alternatives if oil supplies from Iran were cut off due to regional instability.
Impacts on Trade Routes and Connectivity
Afghanistan’s economy relies not just on its direct trade with Iran but also on its role as a transit hub for regional trade. The country is located at the crossroads of Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East, with important trade routes passing through its territory. In recent years, Afghanistan has sought to improve its connectivity with its neighbors, particularly through the Chabahar Port in Iran, which provides Afghanistan with access to international markets without relying on Pakistani routes.
An Israeli-Iranian conflict would likely lead to the closure or disruption of key trade routes, particularly those running through Iran. This would isolate Afghanistan from global markets, making it harder for Afghan businesses to export their goods. In the absence of secure trade routes, Afghanistan would have to rely on more costly and time-consuming alternatives, leading to higher costs for consumers and businesses alike.
Moreover, the destabilization of Iran could lead to a broader deterioration of security in the region, including along the Iran-Afghanistan border. Increased insecurity would further deter foreign investment, which Afghanistan desperately needs for infrastructure development and job creation. The combination of reduced trade, higher energy costs, and decreased investment would almost certainly result in a severe economic contraction, pushing more Afghans into poverty.
Impact on Refugee Flows
Afghanistan is already grappling with a large population of internally displaced people and refugees due to decades of war and instability. A conflict between Israel and Iran could exacerbate this situation by triggering new refugee flows, both from Iran into Afghanistan and from Afghanistan to other neighboring countries.
Iran hosts millions of Afghan refugees who have fled conflict and economic hardship in their own country. An Israeli attack on Iran could lead to instability within Iran, potentially forcing these refugees to return to Afghanistan. This would place an additional burden on Afghanistan’s already overstretched economy and public services, including healthcare, education, and housing. The sudden influx of refugees would increase competition for scarce resources and drive up prices for basic goods and services, further straining the country’s economy.
In addition to Afghan refugees in Iran, any major conflict could displace thousands of Iranians, many of whom might seek refuge in Afghanistan. The country would then face the dual challenge of managing both internal and external displacement, further straining its already fragile social fabric.
Inflation and Commodity Prices
Another key area of concern for Afghanistan in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran is inflation. Afghanistan, like many developing economies, is highly sensitive to changes in global commodity prices, particularly oil. A military conflict involving one of the world’s major oil producers—Iran—would almost certainly lead to a sharp spike in global oil prices, driving up the cost of fuel, food, and other basic goods in Afghanistan.
The country is already grappling with high inflation due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and the economic impact of sanctions. A further spike in inflation caused by a regional conflict would erode the purchasing power of ordinary Afghans, many of whom are already struggling to make ends meet. Rising prices for food and fuel would hit the poorest segments of society the hardest, increasing the risk of social unrest.
Regional Instability and Economic Collapse
The broader regional consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran would also pose significant risks to Afghanistan’s economy. Afghanistan’s stability is closely tied to that of its neighbors, and any major conflict in the region could have ripple effects across Central and South Asia. A prolonged conflict between Israel and Iran could spill over into neighboring countries, including Afghanistan, further destabilizing an already fragile region.
Afghanistan is still recovering from decades of conflict, and its political and economic institutions remain weak. The Taliban, which currently governs the country, faces significant challenges in maintaining stability and managing the economy. An Israeli-Iranian conflict would almost certainly divert international attention and resources away from Afghanistan, further undermining efforts to rebuild the country.
Conclusion: Why Israel Should Avoid an Attack
Given the potential economic and humanitarian consequences for Afghanistan and the broader region, it is in Israel’s interest to avoid a military confrontation with Iran. The economic fallout of such a conflict would not be limited to the immediate participants but would reverberate across the Middle East and Central Asia, plunging countries like Afghanistan into deeper economic hardship.
Instead of pursuing military options, Israel and Iran should engage in diplomatic dialogue to resolve their differences and promote regional stability. A peaceful resolution of tensions would benefit not just Israel and Iran but the entire region, including Afghanistan, by ensuring continued trade, energy supplies, and economic growth. Avoiding conflict would also prevent a humanitarian disaster, particularly in vulnerable countries like Afghanistan, which cannot afford further destabilization.
In conclusion, an Israeli attack on Iran would have catastrophic economic consequences for Afghanistan, driving up prices, disrupting trade, and potentially triggering a new refugee crisis. For the sake of regional stability and economic growth, it is essential that all parties work towards peaceful resolution of their differences.